Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to consistently remain above US$ 100 bn for the fourth consecutive quarter (January-March) of FY2023, amounting to US$ 110.9 bn, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 87.7 bn during the same period. India’s exports could be shadowed by a deepening global energy crisis, tighter global monetary and financial conditions, continued slowdown in select major trade partners and continued uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite a contraction in exports during the last two quarters of the current financial year, India is expected to witness all-time record-high merchandise exports of US$ 447.3 bn during FY2023. Non-oil exports are forecast to clock at US$ 350.5 bn for the full year.
Forecasts of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 1st quarter of FY 2024 (i.e. April-June 2023) would be released during the first fortnight of June 2023.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.