India, 4th October 2025: Despite mounting concerns over trade barriers, including the U.S. imposing its highest tariffs since the 1930s, global business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about international trade prospects, according to a new report by ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) titled The Outlook for Global Trade: Perspectives from Business Leaders.
The report, based on surveys and interviews with senior business executives and finance professionals worldwide, reveals that while 85% of respondents are concerned about the impact of tariffs, a surprising 56% expect their organisations to increase global trade in the next three to five years. Only 23% anticipate a decline.
Notably, C-suite executives are even more upbeat, with 38% expecting a significant increase and 29% expecting a moderate rise in trade volumes.
“2025 has been a monumental year for international trade, with the US raising import tariffs to historic levels,” said Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Economist, ACCA. “While global trade faces headwinds, business leaders appear optimistic about medium-term prospects and remain strong advocates of an open trading system.”
From the Indian perspective, Md. Sajid Khan, Director – India, ACCA, added:
“Business leaders we spoke with don’t foresee a collapse in global trade, but they are concerned about rising protectionism, sanctions, and geopolitical tensions. These remain key obstacles to long-term growth.”
Key Risks and Opportunities Identified
Respondents identified the top risks to global trade as:
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Geopolitical tensions
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International or civil conflicts
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Protectionist policies in advanced economies
Yet, optimism stems from key opportunities:
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Leveraging technology, especially AI, to facilitate cross-border trade
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Diversifying production and supply chains
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Accessing new technologies through global collaboration
Shifting Global Trade Patterns
Major shifts are already underway in response to evolving trade dynamics:
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60% of organisations have already relocated aspects of production or investment
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61% plan to do so in the near future
This adaptive behaviour reflects companies’ efforts to mitigate risks and capture emerging opportunities.
Cost Implications
The impact on operational costs is significant:
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35% of businesses expect trade-related costs to rise by over 10%
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46% foresee cost increases of up to 10%
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Only 6% expect costs to decrease
Economists warn that a fragmented and protectionist trade environment could drive up global prices — a sentiment echoed by the survey’s findings.
As global trade navigates one of its most turbulent periods in recent history, the ACCA report underscores a central theme: while challenges abound, resilience and adaptability continue to define global business strategy.