Mumbai, Jan 20:  India’s insurance sector is entering a phase of sustained mid-term expansion, underpinned by strong economic fundamentals, rising consumer demand and supportive regulatory reforms, according to a new Swiss Re Institute analysis titled “India’s economic and insurance market outlook 2026–2030: resilient and rising amid global shifts.”

Swiss Re forecasts India’s insurance premiums to grow at an annual real rate of 6.9% between 2026 and 2030, making it the fastest-growing major insurance market globally. This growth is expected to significantly outpace China (around 4%), the US (2%), and Western Europe (about 2%) over the same period.

Strong economic tailwinds support insurance expansion

India is projected to maintain an average real GDP growth of 6.5% over the next five years, supported by robust private consumption, continued public infrastructure investment and improving private capital expenditure. Fiscal measures such as GST simplification and personal income tax concessions are boosting demand, particularly among lower- and middle-income households. The impact of global trade disruptions, including US tariffs, is expected to remain limited, given that goods exports to the US account for only about 2% of India’s GDP.

Amitabha Ray, Market Head for India at Swiss Re, said:

“India is a clear bright spot for insurance growth in the mid-term, with strong opportunities emerging across health and motor insurance. Forward-looking regulatory reforms, digital innovation and an increasingly consumer-centric product mix will support expansion. Insurance will play a vital role as a financial shock absorber for Indian households and businesses facing rising climate, health and longevity risks.”

Regulation and innovation driving the next growth phase

The forecast marks a strong rebound from 3.1% growth in 2025, following adjustments to new regulations. Reforms led by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), along with broader government initiatives, are improving transparency and reshaping the sector for long-term growth. Key measures include a higher foreign direct investment (FDI) limit, modernisation of distribution channels and GST reforms, which are expected to attract capital, expand access and stimulate insurance adoption.

Life insurance premiums are projected to grow 6.8% annually over 2026–2030, driven by expanding distribution, rising demand for retirement solutions and steady credit growth. India remains the second-largest life insurance market among emerging economies.

While non-life insurance faces near-term pressures from regulatory changes and medical inflation, growth is expected to recover in the medium term. Health insurance premiums are forecast to grow 7.2% annually, while motor insurance is expected to expand by 7.5%, supported by increased vehicle penetration.

Mahesh H Puttaiah, Head of Insurance Market Analysis at Swiss Re Institute, noted:

“India’s large consumer base, stable inflation and fiscal prudence provide resilience against global uncertainty. These strengths will translate into sustained insurance premium growth, positioning India for a very positive mid-term outlook.”

Rising natural catastrophe risk highlights protection gap

Swiss Re estimates that USD 26–29 trillion in property assets are exposed to natural catastrophe risks across India, with several high-growth regions overlapping with multi-peril hotspots. As asset concentration increases, large-scale disasters could have a material impact on national economic growth.

Addressing this risk will require wider insurance and reinsurance coverage, alongside investments in early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure and stricter enforcement of building codes—particularly in rapidly urbanising and coastal regions.

Parvinder Singh, Head of Client Underwriting India at Swiss Re, said:

“Amid rising catastrophe risks and global uncertainty, disciplined underwriting and sustainable insurance solutions are essential to narrowing India’s protection gap and ensuring long-term stability for communities and businesses.”

Insurance market growth outlook (real terms)

  • India: 6.9% (2026–2030)

  • Emerging Asia (ex-China): 6.1%

  • China: 3.9%

  • North America: 1.8%

  • Western Europe: 2.1%