The precious metals complex is closing 2025 with a clearly bullish tone, reflecting a macroeconomic environment that favors tangible assets. Gold is holding around USD 4,300 per ounce, while silver is trading near USD 66 per ounce, with approximate intraday ranges of USD 4,318–4,344 for gold and USD 65.9–66.5 for silver. This performance reflects a combination of expectations for more accommodative monetary policy, a weaker dollar, and a renewed search for hedging amid global economic uncertainty.

The primary catalyst for gold remains the real rates–dollar dynamic. The dollar index remains around 98.3 points, posting an annual decline of roughly 9.5%, which has reduced pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. At the same time, the benchmark real yield, measured through instruments such as the 10-year TIPS, stands near 1.92%, a level that continues to define the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold.

In this context, the market has shown greater sensitivity to the expected path of monetary policy than to the absolute level of rates. If the outlook for 2026 consolidates gradual rate cuts, the structural support for gold could remain intact, provided there is no sustained dollar rebound or a significant increase in real rates. Thus, the metal’s strength reflects a broader macro convergence rather than isolated short-term events.

Silver has been one of the standout metals of the year due to its hybrid nature, combining safe-haven characteristics with a strong industrial component. In 2025, its performance will be driven by structural demand linked to technology and the energy transition, within a market of relatively limited depth. As a result, silver has gained close to 128% year-to-date, recently consolidating around USD 65.94 per ounce after peaking near USD 66.52.

A key element underpinning silver is the persistence of a structural deficit. Market-tracked estimates point to a shortfall of around 125 million ounces in 2025, extending several consecutive years of imbalance between supply and consumption. When this deficit persists, silver tends to exhibit more aggressive price movements than gold, given its smaller market size and less flexible short-term supply.

Within the platinum metals group, platinum has gained prominence in recent months. It is trading around USD 1,920–1,922 per ounce, reaching multi-year highs, supported by expectations of steadier industrial and automotive demand and constrained supply. In an environment where investors are seeking diversification, platinum has begun to attract flows based on relative value, particularly against a more volatile silver market.

Palladium, meanwhile, is trading in a range of USD 1,634–1,684 per ounce, reflecting an overall improvement in sentiment across the complex, albeit with a different structural dynamic. Its heavy dependence on the automotive sector and the technological transition toward new mobility solutions have reduced its premium compared with previous years, making it the metal most sensitive to specific shifts in demand and concentrated supply adjustments.

On the institutional front, gold continues to receive additional support from official demand. In October 2025, net purchases by central banks totaled close to 53 tonnes, a significant flow that often acts as a buffer during correction phases and reinforces gold’s role as a strategic reserve asset, particularly amid geopolitical and financial fragmentation.

In conclusion, from a fundamental perspective, the close of 2025 leaves three clear pillars for precious metals: a structurally weaker dollar, expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy (primarily through real rates), and solid supply-demand fundamentals, particularly evident in silver. In this environment:

  • Gold consolidates its role as the sector’s defensive anchor

  • Silver concentrates the directional component due to its deficit and industrial demand

  • Platinum improves its profile as a cyclical and relative-value play

  • Palladium remains the metal most exposed to technological change and sector-specific volatility